Trump’s betting his 2016 instincts will get him through the pandemic — and win him a second term

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(CNN)- With his crusade to open America, President Donald Trump is betting for the second election in a row that he’s got a better feel for the mood of the country than his opponents.

Trump’s calculation to reject science and push to swiftly crank up an economy with the nation still ravaged by Covid-19 could kill many more than the 85,000 Americans who have already died.That seems a price Trump is willing to pay as he appeals directly to the many millions of Americans who are also victims of the pandemic, but who have paid with their jobs, not their lives. That’s a message that could resonate.

In states where the virus has not caused massive death tolls, it can seem remote. But economic blight is everywhere and should brew a political storm that would punish Democrats if Trump can paint them as stubborn enemies of a return to figure or liable for furloughs turning into long-term job losses.In 2016, Trump confounded the political class by seizing on the “forgotten Americans” who had seen their jobs in industrial heartlands disappear to low-wage economies in Asia and were contemptuous of the guarantees of what they saw as correctness , “globalist” politicians in both parties.

Four years later, the President, whose refusal to wear a mask sends a message of defiance and outsider authenticity to his supporters, is again choosing a path that ignores the warnings of experts. Public health officials and lots of of Trump’s critics argue that opening shops, restaurants, hair salons, movie theaters and bars — even at reduced capacity — risks igniting new epidemics even before an expected resurgence of the virus within the fall.

Trump has acknowledged that lives are going to be lost but says there’s no alternative to reviving the economy on which numerous lives rest — and on which his reelection depends.”Will some people be affected badly? Yes,” Trump said earlier this month. But he added: “We need to get our country open and that we need to catch on open soon.”

Or as Trump’s economic adviser Peter Navarro put it on a CNN government building on Thursday night: “If we do not open this economy copy , we’re not getting to have an economy.”

The virus and its unknown impact on politics
The success or failure of Trump’s gamble will a minimum of partially be up to an epidemic that’s highly transmissible and has no current vaccine or proven therapy. If the pandemic wanes, and states that are opening create a semblance of normal life, the President could get credit for his early call to restart the economy. If, by November, the election activates mostly economic questions, he may have maneuvered himself onto a launch pad for a victory that looked unlikely because the pandemic spread in recent weeks.

On the opposite hand, if state openings spark a resurgence of the virus before a deadly winter, new questions are going to be raised about Trump’s leadership and squandering of human life. After being in denial about the virus within the first place and failing to properly prepare, he will have botched the reopening, potentially causing even more economic damage.

The conundrum reveals the foremost intriguing political questions of the approaching months: How will the trauma from the pandemic shape voter sentiment? Have Trump’s repeated missteps already alienated sufficient swing voters — especially the crucial bloc of suburban women — to form Joe Biden president?

Or are the Washington pundits missing something. Does the incessant Beltway specialise in Trump’s lies, organizational disasters and distractions obscure the likelihood that he has again identified a latent political force together with his reopening campaign that would reassemble his 2016 coalition and engineer a good more surprising victory night in November? Or is there an unknown, anti-Trump counter wave building, fueled by dissatisfaction together with his performance?

A political play from the gut
Trump’s gut turn the economy reflects how he has exploited the country’s deep ideological and cultural split. He has strongly supported conservative protesters who have targeted Democratic governors who ordered lockdowns, despite polls showing the malcontents are during a minority.

He never shared former President Barack Obama’s vision of a unified America. Trump, instead, has worked to electrify the conservative half of the country. In pushing openings he is lining himself up among often blue collar conservatives in the Midwest and the South who populate his political base. Suburban, middle class voters on the coasts and in the cities are more likely to vote Democratic, and also may work in office jobs and so can log on to the laptop at home. But the economic crunch has disproportionately hit lower-paid workers who are more likely to be laid off and need to get back to the workplace.

Source: CNN NEWS

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